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What role can NATO play in addressing grey zone coercion in the Indo-Pacific? In this article, Joel Sawyer explores how the Alliance can strengthen regional pre-conflict deterrence and preparedness to reduce the effectiveness of coercive grey zone operations, actions, and activities.
As US-China rivalry escalates, China’s new export curbs on rare earths have exposed NATO’s dangerous dependence on external suppliers for the minerals underpinning its defence industries. Daniel Lincoln argues that the Alliance must develop a unified industrial strategy to secure access to critical materials, independent of both Washington and Beijing. By building diversified supply chains, joint stockpiles, and integrated processing capacity, he contends that NATO can turn resource vulnerability into strategic resilience.
In this article, Narayan Srivastava examines how China’s accelerating push into deep-
sea mineral partnerships across the Cook Islands, Kiribati, and Tonga is reshaping the
South Pacific’s strategic balance. The article also highlights emerging vulnerabilities for
Canada and NATO in critical mineral supply chains. The piece evaluates how Pacific
resource politics now intersect with broader questions of regional dependence, maritime influence, and great-power competition.
In “China’s Calculated Partnerships: Decoding Beijing’s Alignment with Russia and NATO’s Strategic Response,” Daniel Lincoln argues that Beijing’s support for Moscow stems from insecurity, not ideology, and that misreading this dynamic risks hardening a fragile partnership. The piece calls for a strategy of restraint and engagement – one that deters aggression while offering China reasons to distance itself from the Kremlin.
In his latest piece, Alexander Morrow highlights how new NATO spending commitments strengthen security in both Europe and the Indo-Pacific. As the alliance rebalances burden sharing, European arms purchases have the potential to bolster the United State’s military industrial base and its ability to deter aggression against Taiwan.
In Strategic Myopia: The Folly of Tariffing China to Halt Russian Aggression in Ukraine, Daniel Lincoln argues that proposed secondary sanctions on China would backfire by hurting Western economies more than Beijing. Drawing on data and historical parallels, he contends that China’s vast domestic market, diversified trade networks, and resilience to sanctions make economic coercion ineffective. Instead, he maintains that NATO should focus on understanding Beijing’s strategic calculus and pursue policies that engage rather than alienate China.
Narayan Srivastava highlights how NATO’s relevance in today’s multipolar world depends on engagement with the Global South. From safeguarding maritime chokepoints to strengthening resilience in energy and trade, actors like India, Brazil, and the Gulf states are emerging as indispensable partners. By expanding its partnership models and leveraging shared interests, this article explores how NATO can reinforce its role as the global custodian of stability, ensuring that the Alliance not only adapts to new realities but leads in shaping them.
By Daniel Lincoln The modern Indo-Pacific is witnessing assertions of strategic autonomy that challenge classical geopolitical logics and patterns of great power competition. During the 2025 Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, regional leaders signaled that they will not be corralled into binary agreements amid intensifying US-China rivalry. The forum revealed a fundamental rejection of zero-sum superpower Read More…
Canada is facing severe challenges. As bilateral relations deteriorate and international alliances rapidly shift, Canada must reassess defence priorities. Canada needs to start by aligning with the European Union and defence preparation in the Arctic. Long seen as an afterthought, northern borders are a key battleground for resources, trade and influence. Unaddressed global warming is Read More…
Below is the NATO Association of Canada’s publication on increasing Canada’s defence spending, with contributions from leading experts. Line of Defence: A Policy Agenda for Canada’s Defence Capabilities