What role can NATO play in addressing grey zone coercion in the Indo-Pacific? In this article, Joel Sawyer explores how the Alliance can strengthen regional pre-conflict deterrence and preparedness to reduce the effectiveness of coercive grey zone operations, actions, and activities.
As US-China rivalry escalates, China’s new export curbs on rare earths have exposed NATO’s dangerous dependence on external suppliers for the minerals underpinning its defence industries. Daniel Lincoln argues that the Alliance must develop a unified industrial strategy to secure access to critical materials, independent of both Washington and Beijing. By building diversified supply chains, joint stockpiles, and integrated processing capacity, he contends that NATO can turn resource vulnerability into strategic resilience.
In “China’s Calculated Partnerships: Decoding Beijing’s Alignment with Russia and NATO’s Strategic Response,” Daniel Lincoln argues that Beijing’s support for Moscow stems from insecurity, not ideology, and that misreading this dynamic risks hardening a fragile partnership. The piece calls for a strategy of restraint and engagement – one that deters aggression while offering China reasons to distance itself from the Kremlin.
In his latest piece, Alexander Morrow highlights how new NATO spending commitments strengthen security in both Europe and the Indo-Pacific. As the alliance rebalances burden sharing, European arms purchases have the potential to bolster the United State’s military industrial base and its ability to deter aggression against Taiwan.
In Strategic Myopia: The Folly of Tariffing China to Halt Russian Aggression in Ukraine, Daniel Lincoln argues that proposed secondary sanctions on China would backfire by hurting Western economies more than Beijing. Drawing on data and historical parallels, he contends that China’s vast domestic market, diversified trade networks, and resilience to sanctions make economic coercion ineffective. Instead, he maintains that NATO should focus on understanding Beijing’s strategic calculus and pursue policies that engage rather than alienate China.
Narayan Srivastava highlights how NATO’s relevance in today’s multipolar world depends on engagement with the Global South. From safeguarding maritime chokepoints to strengthening resilience in energy and trade, actors like India, Brazil, and the Gulf states are emerging as indispensable partners. By expanding its partnership models and leveraging shared interests, this article explores how NATO can reinforce its role as the global custodian of stability, ensuring that the Alliance not only adapts to new realities but leads in shaping them.
By Daniel Lincoln The modern Indo-Pacific is witnessing assertions of strategic autonomy that challenge classical geopolitical logics and patterns of great power competition. During the 2025 Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, regional leaders signaled that they will not be corralled into binary agreements amid intensifying US-China rivalry. The forum revealed a fundamental rejection of zero-sum superpower Read More…
Abstract: The United States (US) and its Southeast Asian non-NATO major ally, the Philippines, have just concluded the fourth US – Philippines 2+2 Ministerial Dialogue hosted in Manila on July 30, 2024. In Part 1 of this special report, Contributing Writer Mark Davis Madarang Pablo examines the key takeaways from this historic meeting. This analysis Read More…
FOIP and RBIO Under Threat While many of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) member-states are heavily preoccupied with providing military assistance to Ukraine’s self-defence against Russia’s war of aggression in the eastern flank, the latest string of events in the Indo-Pacific is a growing cause of concern that could spark a regional armed conflict Read More…
Abstract: Indonesia’s election commission has confirmed that Minister of Defence Prabowo Subianto will be the next President of Indonesia. What could possibly remain and change in Jakarta’s foreign policy? In this article, Program Editor Mark Davis Madarang Pablo analyzes the probable sets of economic and security policies that Subianto might pursue against the backdrop of Read More…